AI infrastructure through an investor’s lens
Demand is growing. The investment case still rests on customers, contracts and execution.
A growing market is a starting point
Growth in AI use does not tell an investor which part of the infrastructure to own or how that asset will earn revenue. The first task is to separate the market story from the business being financed.
In its 2025 Energy and AI report, the International Energy Agency estimated global data center electricity use at 415 TWh in 2024 and projected around 945 TWh by 2030 in its base case. These figures cover all data centers, not AI alone. They describe a scenario, not contracted demand for a particular facility.
Identify what the business actually sells
A landlord providing powered space has a different exposure from an operator selling computing capacity. A developer holding an early-stage site has a different exposure again. Combining these activities in a single forecast can obscure where the risk sits.
Separate the asset layers: land and development rights, power infrastructure, the building and cooling systems, and the computing equipment. For each layer, identify the customer, revenue mechanism, maintenance obligation and capital needed before income begins.
Read the contract before the headline
A headline capacity number says little about revenue quality. The useful questions concern committed payments, conditions before service starts, termination rights and who carries the cost of delays. Customer concentration also deserves attention. Several contracts can still depend on the same underlying source of demand.
A forecast should distinguish signed commitments from negotiations and market assumptions. The aim is to make the evidence visible, rather than turn every expression of interest into an occupancy assumption.
Test the downside in operational terms
Test a slower customer ramp, higher operating costs, delayed energisation and the capital required to adapt the facility. Equipment value and building value should not be assumed to move together. The ability to replace a customer or reconfigure capacity can matter as much as the initial lease term.
